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             The Hindsight Bias

      Judgment and decision making is one area in
psychology.    Bias is one topic in judgment and decision
making.  There are a number of possible types of judgment
and decision bias.  One important bias is the hindsight bias.  
Thus, it is important to define the hindsight bias.  What is the
hindsight bias?

Hindsight Bias Definition

The hindsight bias reflects a tendency to overestimate your
own ability to have predicted or foreseen an event after
learning about the outcome.

Hindsight Bias Example

     There are a number of possible examples of hindsight
bias. Imagine that you receive a letter from a publisher that
states that the publisher is going to publish your short story.  
You tell a friend that you knew that they would publish it.  
However, the friend reminds you that before you received
the letter, you had told him that you were very uncertain
about whether the publisher would accept your short story
for publication.  This is one example of hindsight bias.