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           The Hindsight Bias

  Judgment and decision making is one area in psychology.  
Bias is one topic in judgment and decision making.  There are
a number of possible types of judgment and decision bias.
One important bias is the hindsight bias.  Thus, it is important
to define the hindsight bias.  What is the hindsight bias?

Hindsight Bias Definition

The hindsight bias reflects a tendency to overestimate your
own ability to have predicted or foreseen an event after
learning about the outcome.

Hindsight Bias Example

 There are a number of possible examples of hindsight bias.
Imagine that you receive a letter from a publisher that states
that the publisher is going to publish your short story.  You
tell a friend that you knew that they would publish it.  
However, the friend reminds you that before you received
the letter, you had told him that you were very uncertain
about whether the publisher would accept your short story
for publication.  This is one example of hindsight bias.