CONCEPTS
HOME
               The Hindsight Bias

      Judgment and decision making is one area in psychology.  Bias is one topic in judgment and decision making.  There are a number of possible types of judgment and decision bias. One important bias is the hindsight bias.  Thus, it is important to define the hindsight bias.  What is the hindsight bias?

Hindsight Bias Definition

The hindsight bias reflects a tendency to overestimate your own ability to have predicted or foreseen an event after learning about the outcome.

Hindsight Bias Example

     There are a number of possible examples of hindsight bias. Imagine that you receive a letter from a publisher that states that the publisher is going to publish your short story.  You tell a friend that you knew that they would publish it.  However, the friend reminds you that before you received the letter, you had told him that you were very uncertain about whether the publisher would accept your short story for publication.  This is one example of hindsight bias.